Shadow Graduation
Graduate at home first: run Bangladesh on post-LDC rules for a full year in 2028, publish the gaps, close them, and graduate ready in 2029.
Policy · LDC graduation
Bangladesh's LDC graduation moved from November 2026 to 24 November 2029. The extension is a good call, but only if we treat it as a rehearsal, not a holiday. Readiness is not a calendar problem. It is a forcing problem: nothing changes until something forces it.
The idea
Treat 1 January 2028 as graduation day at home, 23 months before the real one. For a full year, government and industry run on post-LDC domestic rules, as if the preferences were already gone. Then publish the gaps, close them, and keep a buffer.
Why not start now?
We asked for time because of a war-time energy shock. A rehearsal in the middle of that shock would test the shock, not our readiness. 2027 is for writing the rulebook; 2028 is for living by it.
What the rehearsal tests
| Area | Rehearsal rule from January 2028 | What it tests |
|---|---|---|
| Export support | No cash incentives. Only WTO-compatible support, such as funds open to all industry | Can exporters stand without subsidy? |
| Pricing | Exporters cost EU, UK, Canada and Japan orders as if post-exit tariffs applied, on paper | Which product lines survive the tariff |
| Rules of origin | Every EU-bound shipment carries a yarn-to-garment origin file | Do we have the paper trail? |
| Pharmaceuticals | Each company maps which products would face patents once the waiver ends | Exposure, company by company |
| GSP+ conventions | A public scorecard on implementing all 32 conventions, not just ratifying them | Would the EU accept us? |
| Public finance | Budgets planned as if concessional loans were already shrinking | Fiscal resilience |
In January 2029 the gap audit goes public; it can double as our annual progress report to the UN. February to July closes the gaps. August to November is the buffer, because something always slips.
Read the full article, with all 35 sources, or the 9-slide version.